As the days continue to dwindle until November 6, stakes continue to grow as only a few seats remain to determine who will control the chamber as it relates to bills that make it to the debate floor, committee chair selection, confirmation of judicial roles, and other decision-making responsibilities. While it’s typical for a president’s party to lose seats during midterm elections, the decision still remains with the people to determine what next steps may look like as a country. With over 30 Senate races on the ballot, the following states are important to watch during the upcoming midterm election cycle because they are what will tip the scale between Democratic or Republican control in Congress.
Michigan
Michigan is a state with one of the highest stakes this election season, as it not only has an open Senate seat, but they also have a looming open seat for governor and has numerous congressional district roles being sought out. With the state having a history of switching between political party leadership, it’s unclear where it might land this year. For this upcoming election cycle, former Republican Representative Mike Rogers and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed will go head-to-head for the Senate seat.
Iowa
Like Michigan, Iowa is also holding simultaneous Senate and governor elections, making it a state to watch, as it could lean toward either party. This will be the first time in over thirty years that the state has the two roles on the ballot together, making for fierce decision-making for residents there. Over the last few elections, the state has shifted from more Democratic-leaning to Republican-leaning, with record-breaking turnout of over 1 million voters. Democratic state representative Josh Turek and GOP Representative Ashley Hinson face off for the Senate seat.
Illinois
As one of the Black women running for a Senate seat in 2026, Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton has made strides since the beginning of the year after winning the Democratic primary race back in March. However, she still has to face former Illinois Republican Party Chair Don Tracy to determine who will get the Senate seat. Illinois has historically been a state that’s voted Democratic, but it’s a key state to watch this election cycle because of how many roles they’re looking to fill as political leaders retire. If Stratton wins this race, she would be the second in the state’s history as a Black woman to serve as senator.
Ohio
The Senate seat election is heating up in Ohio as the state seeks to find a replacement after JD Vance was elected vice president of the United States. Former senator Sherrod Brown runs against Jon Husted, who has been appointed to the role amid Vance’s departure. Husted has been endorsed by the Republican Party. While the state usually leans more Republican, they have the potential to switch voting styles, considering the traditional swap in voting results amid party affiliation on the presidential level.
North Carolina
Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley are running for the Senate seat of North Carolina after it was vacated by retired former Republican Senator Thom Tillis. Though the state has typically leaned more Republican and voted for President Trump in previous years, Cooper has won previous political races, including roles as governor and attorney general. Meanwhile, Whatley is a former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman and a well-known ally of President Trump, which could swing votes in his favor. The state also has a large number of independent voters who could massively tip the scale when given the opportunity. The state has not had a Democrat take the Senate seat since 2008.
Texas
Anticipation continues to grow as Texas voters push for Democratic representation and fair poll voting after previous accusations of voter suppression throughout the state. With Democratic state Rep. James Talarico as their candidate, on-the-ground advocacy has continued to rear its head as Election Day gets closer. Talarico vies for the Senate seat, opposing Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. While Paxton has the backing of President Trump, Talarico has raised more money from donors, according to The Texas Tribune. The Democratic Party has not won a Senate seat in the state of Texas for over 30 years, so it is unclear where the state will land in voting despite the hopefulness of the voters and those in the party.
Maine
Maine has a key Senate race to watch not only because of it having a seat could help Democrats regain majority control of the Senate, but also because of how high profile their election is. Current senator Susan Collins is running against Maine’s former state Senate President Troy Jackson after five terms of being in her role. The state has previously leaned blue and actively voted against President Trump during previous elections, but the longevity of Collins’ role makes it hard to tell which direction voters will go in.
Alaska
While Mary Peltola was the first native Alaskan elected to Congress in 2022, she has the potential to make history again if she wins the state’s Senate seat by being the state’s first Democrat elected since Mark Begich in 2008. She’s running against GOP Senator Dan Sullivan, representing the Republican Party, who has held the position for a little over a decade. Alaska has historically leaned more Republican in previous elections, but voting styles can still unexpectedly shift due to presidential party affiliation. The state has also been on many people’s radar for its open governor seat after Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy’s term ends.
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